Alas Poor Blu-Ray, We Hardly Knew Ye ...

Analyst Roger Kay of Endpoint Technologies Associates has stated the current economic climate will have a negative impact on Blu-Ray adoption this Christmas. He claims that people just don't have the cash to go upgrading their home entertainment systems. In reference to internet-based video-on-demand services, he also notes:

If you can get movies over the wire on demand and have an entire library at your disposal on the screen, that's the way you're going to go.

When it comes to Blu-Ray, I really don't see what the fuss is all about. I believe that the general public does not need to watch everything in full-HD, certainly not having recently only upgraded from VHS to DVD. DVD brought a wow-factor picture and sound quality, as well as being much more convenient than VHS. However, blu-ray doesn't really offer all that more, certainly not enough to justify a new player costing €300 and discs that start at €25. Also, viewers need to have a full HD TV set on top of the player and despite what the media may have reported, not everyone has a giant flatscreen at home.

I predict that blu-ray will sell poorly this Christmas and next year, the price of players and discs will halve. I still don't think this will generate the sales numbers the industry hopes. Meanwhile, the installation of media-centres will increase and (mostly illegal) video downloads will shoot through the roof. The industry will move to more convenient video download services by next year, with the iTunes store being made available in more countries.

That's my €0.02 anyway. What do you think?